MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR / ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 230753Z - 231000Z
   
   ALTHOUGH EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL AR REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF
   ONGOING ACTIVITY SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT CONDITIONAL UPON FURTHER /
   MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
   REGION FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG 100 MB MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE/ PERSISTS ACROSS AR / ERN OK UPSTREAM OF WSWWD-MOVING STORM
   CLUSTER.  ALTHOUGH WEAK CAP HAS APPARENTLY SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...RECENT RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATES TRANSIENT CB INITIATION ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. 
   
   
   AREA VWPS INDICATE WLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BENEATH MODERATE ELY / NELY
   LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP
   INTO A LINE ALONG WSWWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/23/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
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