MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CDT WED APR 07 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50...
   
   VALID 080122Z - 080215Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY THROUGH 04Z ACROSS CENTRAL MS. GREATEST
   SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z...IF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS ACROSS SRN AR CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY REACH FAR WEST
   CENTRAL MS.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   FAR SRN AR EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS INTO WEST CENTRAL AL...WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINTAINING
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  IT APPEARS PER WV IMAGERY THAT
   CENTRAL MS IS LOCATED IN A ZONE OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH OVER AL AND A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX...WHICH IS
   SUPPRESSING CURRENT ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/
   INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...ONGOING
   ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA SHOULD MAINTAIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
   WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/08/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
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