MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN OH INTO SERN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 182003Z - 182100Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST CENTRAL
   OH NNEWD TO NRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.  
   
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   19Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN LOWER MI SSWWD ACROSS NWRN-WEST CENTRAL OH
   /TO THE W OF DAY/ TO SERN IND. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING
   SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...AN EXTENSIVE E-W BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
   AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
   NRN OH /TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOUD BAND/...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
   SURFACE HEATING LOCALLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. 
   
   GIVEN SMALL THREAT AREA...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...
   
   41698131 40738206 40058343 40318495 41588394 42398338