MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...OK/TX PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 182005Z - 182100Z
   
   .UPDATE TO MCD 608...
   17Z VORTEX TEAM SOUNDING NEAR CLOVIS EXHIBITED ONLY A VERY SMALL CAP
   WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 26 DEG C.  PER LATEST
   TEMPERATURES...CINH WILL ERODE VERY SOON.  CU CONTINUES TO CONGEST
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER-BASED STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA/NCNTRL NM
   MOUNTAINS.  EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN ERNEST BETWEEN 21-22Z
   OVER NERN NM ESE INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL.
   
   REMAINDER OF DISCO THE SAME:
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF MODEST HEIGHT
   FALLS WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NRN NM
   AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTN.  CONCOMITANT
   PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING
   LLVL SELYS ACROSS THE PNHDLS INTO THE NE PLAINS OF NM...
   TRANSPORTING MID/UPR 50S DEW POINTS NWWD.  RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG AND WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
   OF SFC HEATING...CINH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE FOR TSTM INITIATION.
     
   FIRST HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE ALREADY FORMING INVOF THE RATON MESA IN
   NE NM AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.  SUBSEQUENT STORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP WITHIN THE EVOLVING TCU FIELD ESE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS NE NM INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE AFTN.  WLY DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND NEARLY 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
   MATURE ALONG THE NM/TX/OK BORDER.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
   UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR TWO BY MID-EVENING OVER THE TX PNHDL WITH
   LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/18/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   36900182 35970130 35140049 34340009 33960051 33830166
               34000285 34410381 35230465 35910472 36910430 36900182