MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0603 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...CNTRL AND SRN NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...216...
   
   VALID 242303Z - 250030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   213...216...CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE ERN
   TWO THIRDS OF SD SWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB. DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS
   TO BE INCREASING...BUT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL ALSO PERSIST. STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF S-CNTRL
   NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS AFTER 00Z...AND A SMALL WW MIGHT BE NEEDED EAST
   OF WW 212 AND 213.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MN WSWWD THROUGH
   SRN ND TO A SURFACE LOW IN WRN SD. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE
   LOW THROUGH SWRN SD INTO W-CNTRL NEB AND NWRN KS. WARM SECTOR
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT
   TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR TO UNDERGO A
   DECREASING TREND. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING SUGGESTS THIS TREND
   MIGHT CONTINUE...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 60+ KT FROM NERN NEB INTO
   ERN SD AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   EJECTING UPPER JET MAX. STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST
   IN WARM SECTOR WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WITHIN
   ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS HAVE
   TRANSITIONED INTO A DOMINANT LINEAR MODE...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
   VERTICAL SHEAR...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL REMAIN
   LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB AND N-CNTRL KS THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/24/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   41540037 43150142 44550198 45460156 45880039 46009802
               45479687 41949799 39729811 39539927 41540037