MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2247
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF TX S PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 112048Z - 112145Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE TX S PLAINS. PRIMARY
   THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...BUT
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ELONGATED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   STRETCHING FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG
   UPPER JET CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS NOW
   BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS /AS SAMPLED BY TCU
   PROFILER/. AT THE SFC...20Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING
   SFC LOW APPROXIMATELY 30 E GUY...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE/TROUGH
   PROTRUDING SSWD TO NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
   SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG WEAKLY
   CONFLUENT SFC TROUGH/LOW...AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CINH IN PLACE...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY 22Z /AS SUPPORTED
   BY SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR/. 
   
   MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE PRECLUDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF UPPER TROUGH /MOVING E OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA/...ALTHOUGH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
   MAY ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.
   ADDITIONALLY...INSTABILITY IS QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MLCAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG/...BUT
   STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 10/11/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   36200006 35180005 33280026 32420117 32230169 32260243
               32530267 33350234 34990200 36020192 36840146 36980115
               36980074 36820017 36200006