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Mesoscale Discussion 974 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...
VALID 300428Z - 300530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OVERALL THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND...BUT
HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
EXIST OVER SRN OK NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO WW
319 AND REMAINING PORTION OF WW 317. SOME WEAKENING MIGHT OCCUR AS
STORMS APPROACH THE RED RIVER...AND WW ISSUANCE FARTHER SOUTH OVER
NCNTRL TX WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH SRN OK NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. ATMOSPHERE OVER NCNTRL TX HAS
NOT BEEN OVERTURNED AND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES...AND THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS
ACTIVITY CROSSES THE RED RIVER.
..DIAL.. 05/30/2012
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35419503 34819441 33929480 33359631 33599784 34629860
35529819 34849622 35419503
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