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Mesoscale Discussion 118 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FAR WRN
FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071223Z - 071400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM FAR SRN MS EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW SOUTH OF GULFPORT
MS WITH A WARM FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING ENEWD ALONG THE COAST OF AL
AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F. THE
CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS. ALSO...THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. THEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE MAY ENABLE THE STORMS TO BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE. AS THE LINE MOVES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
MS...AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 02/07/2013
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30588724 30338709 30128726 30038772 29988834 29968884
30048911 30168920 30478889 30638794 30588724
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