MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN/CNTRL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 311912Z - 312115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
   EMANATING NEWD ACROSS NERN IA INTO NWRN WI...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS
   HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. A PLUME OF
   MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS HELD DOWNSTREAM OF
   THIS DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE
   PLUME ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   A FAIRLY LARGE BUOYANCY PROFILE DESPITE MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 1000-1500
   J/KG. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT
   FLOW WEAKENS WITH HEIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WHERE CONVECTION IS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS E-CNTRL MN/NWRN WI. MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR EXISTS FARTHER E/SE...SUGGESTING LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS WOULD
   BE GREATER HERE.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46099300 46499247 46589178 46378987 45748878 45248858
               44738881 44388963 44069096 44089200 44339262 44619311
               45129324 46099300