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Mesoscale Discussion 1080
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA TO FAR NORTHWEST MO/FAR
   NORTHEAST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 142010Z - 142215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND FAR NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS. THIS
   INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING
   AS WELL THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA.

   DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY NNW TO SSE ACROSS EASTERN
   NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS/WEST-CENTRAL MO...WITH PERSISTENT ELEVATED
   CONVECTION /TO ITS NORTHEAST/ ACROSS IA AND NORTHEAST MO CONTINUING
   TO REINFORCE A SURFACE COLD POOL/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. INFLUENCE OF
   THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THE REMAINDER OF
   THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PREVALENT CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW UNDER
   THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THE
   MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB...WHERE MASS
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT/WARM
   FRONT INTERSECTION...WITH STRONG HEATING/DEEPER MIXING IMPINGING ON
   THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

   GIVEN NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL
   HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE TO AS HIGH AS 3500-4000 J/KG AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER CINH OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE. STRONG INSTABILITY
   ASIDE...STRONG DEEP LAYER/L0W-LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES/IMPINGES ON
   THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...UPSCALE/QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY
   OCCUR WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING/SOUTHEAST-MOVING MCS ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA INTO FAR NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO. THIS
   NOTION IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z
   WRF-NMM/12Z WRF-NSSL.

   ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41289812 42409798 42589662 41589493 40199444 39659579
               40789700 41289812 

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