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Mesoscale Discussion 11 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...
VALID 031943Z - 032115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 1 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
ALONG THE SWRN MS/SERN LA BORDER AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH 22-23Z OVER S-CNTRL TO
E-CNTRL MS. A SQUALL LINE OVER WRN MS SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO CNTRL/ERN MS.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1011 MB MESOLOW NEAR
THE SWRN MS/SERN LA BORDER WITH A ROBUST AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER
CNTRL/SRN MS AND ERN LA. RECENT REPORT OF TREE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED
WITH A SUPERCELL OVER WALTHALL COUNTY MS. MODIFIED/INTERPOLATED 18Z
LIX/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST THIS STORM IS WITHIN THE MOST FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITHIN THE HEART OF WW 1...YIELDING A RISK
FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.
FARTHER NW...INTENSIFICATION OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE QLCS INTERCEPTS
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL MS. WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES AMIDST SURFACE-BASED INFLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.
..GRAMS/HART.. 01/03/2015
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 33179041 33438998 33578916 33578856 33508846 33138812
32388797 31188789 30958825 30908902 30459032 30429111
30509140 30679150 33179041
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