|
Mesoscale Discussion 16 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...
VALID 032359Z - 040100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
WITHIN AND JUST NORTH OF WW 002 THROUGH 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
RISK WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEYOND 02Z...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
MAY CONTINUE AND THE NEED FOR A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION WILL BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...BOWING LINE SEGMENT WITH EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATION OVER
WINSTON COUNTY AL WILL MOVE NEWD AND OUT OF WW 002 BY 0030Z.
ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG/ AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...THIS LINE SEGMENT WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR NRN AL
THROUGH 0030-0100Z. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONTINUED DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AND INTERACTION WITH ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW NORTH OF WW 002 IS
UNLIKELY. THIS HAS BEEN COLLABORATED WITH WFO HUNTSVILLE.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 002...THE MOST INTENSE LINE OF
TSTMS EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND INTO SUMTER COUNTY
AL...WITH THE TUSCALOOSA COUNTY PORTION OF THE LINE OCNLY DEVELOPING
EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS. THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEWD WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS/OCNL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 02Z...THE SVR
THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS DIURNAL COOLING CONTINUES.
NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/03/2015
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 34238807 34588805 34808780 34908745 34898719 34878692
34788672 34398666 34048692 33598691 32938689 32658725
32478744 32188760 32098797 32378832 33658791 34238807
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|