MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N FL TO SRN NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...

   VALID 041839Z - 042015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL SC TO THE ERN FL
   PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD WITH RISKS OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
   AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH THE
   OVERALL RISK ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE TO THE N
   IS AROUND 30 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED STRUCTURES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED...CG
   LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED AND IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH THE
   SOUTHEAST QLCS. BUT TRANSIENT MESOVORTICES HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN
   EVIDENT IN PARTS OF E-CNTRL TO S-CNTRL GA...SUPPORTED BY 30-35 KT
   0-1 KM SHEAR PER CAE/VAX VWP DATA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
   REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
   CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS. BUT WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
   THE LINE...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT STRONG
   CONVECTIVE GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY
   ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC.

   FARTHER N NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER...LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY AND POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM HI-RES
   GUIDANCE...THIS STRENGTHENING OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   SUPERCELL TO FORM WITH A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO/WIND RISK.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/04/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31508105 29778290 29808388 30668362 31348277 31888228
               32838183 33718114 34778015 35287945 35517878 35487814
               35247761 34917737 34637742 34157788 33817863 33267932
               31508105