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Mesoscale Discussion 43 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / CAPE COD AND PORTIONS OF ERN MA /
RI / SERN CT
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 262333Z - 270430Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES 1+ INCHES/HOUR WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
BETWEEN 01-03 UTC ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND
ERN LONG ISLAND.
DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ESTIMATED 994-MB LOW 200
MI SE ACY AND SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG H5 HEIGHT FALLS /180 M PER 12 HR/ WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND
--LEADING TO A RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BELOW 980-MB AS IT
DEVELOPS NNEWD TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVING NWWD OVER MARTHA/S VINEYARD WITH
THIS FEATURE TIMED TO MOVE ASHORE COASTAL RI/MA DURING THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN LONG ISLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC
PERIOD. INITIALLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE
CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF RI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
MA BUT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE 01-03 UTC PERIOD.
IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER RATES /2 INCHES PER HOUR OR GREATER/ WILL
OCCUR BEYOND 04Z CONCURRENT WITH INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT FAVORABLY TIMED WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND.
..SMITH.. 01/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...
LAT...LON 40757284 41297251 42187098 42167040 41976994 41696990
41226996 40757284
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