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Mesoscale Discussion 78 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MAINE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 190359Z - 190900Z
SUMMARY...BAND OF SNOW CENTERED OVER YORK COUNTY SHOULD INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT WITH RATES POSSIBLY REACHING 2-3 IN/HR AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST.
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1006 MB MESOLOW NEAR THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF THE NY/VT/MA BORDER WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING E TO
NEAR THE ME/NH COASTAL BORDER. A NNW/SSE-ORIENTED BAND OF PROBABLE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST N OF THIS TROUGH CENTERED
ACROSS YORK COUNTY. THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS HAS
BECOME COINCIDENT WITH THIS BAND IN THE 0330-0345Z IR IMAGES. THIS
LOBE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY WILL YIELD CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AMIDST A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM SAMPLED FROM 700-500 MB IN 00Z GYX/ALB/OKX/BUF
RAOBS SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE NARROW
NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND GRADUAL EWD EVOLUTION...THIS BAND WILL
PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE MID COAST BY 12Z.
..GRAMS.. 02/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 44067084 44167063 44436993 44546916 44506883 44366856
44216855 44106864 43916935 43547013 43337061 43597079
43907091 44067084
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