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Mesoscale Discussion 123 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LA AND CENTRAL
MS/NORTHERN AL
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 051003Z - 051500Z
SUMMARY...AT LEAST LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS/GLAZING ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITH FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AL AS PRECIPITATION
RATES INCREASE /UP TO 0.05-0.10 IN PER HR/ AND COLDER SUB-FREEZING
AIR ARRIVES BY MID/LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH/UPPER-JET ENTRANCE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION...INCLUDING A TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR OF INCREASING WINTER
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LA INTO
CENTRAL MS/NORTHERN AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THE SURFACE WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE
CONTINUES TO STEADILY SPREAD SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM
JUST SOUTH OF I-20 IN NORTHERN LA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS BETWEEN
GREENWOOD/COLUMBUS TO NORTHERN AL NEAR HUNTSVILLE AS OF 09Z.
AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS AND VARIOUS SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE GENERALLY BY THE 13Z-15Z TIME FRAME ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE OWING TO AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
/BETWEEN 850-700 MB/ ATOP SOUTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING SUB-FREEZING
AIR. FURTHERMORE...THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS FAR EAST TX/NORTHERN LA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BURSTS
OF HEAVIER MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
POCKETS OF ICING AND POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY RELATED SLEET. AT
LEAST LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS/GLAZING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED AND
METAL SURFACES.
..GUYER.. 03/05/2015
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 34768580 34098602 33498735 32648856 31309201 32399241
34668675 34768580
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