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Mesoscale Discussion 178 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012057Z - 012230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS MOVING ACROSS WRN
KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. ISOLATED COVERAGE AND A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A PLUME OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG A LEE SFC TROUGH...AND W OF A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE FROM FAR WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION
WILL CROSS THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /E.G. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/ AMIDST MID-UPPER 40S F
DEWPOINTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS AT MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
STORMS GIVEN A ROBUST UPDRAFT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY KEEP THIS THREAT ISOLATED/MARGINAL...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A
WW.
..ROGERS/HART.. 04/01/2015
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 38910000 36609923 34959965 34830004 34950053 36430061
38690134 39000097 38910000
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