MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0825 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN IA...ERN/SRN NEB...AND N-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15...

   VALID 020125Z - 020300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WW 15 OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURE TO
   THE CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN IA AND
   ERN NEB. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THIS
   AREA...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG ESTIMATED BY THE 01Z RAP MESOANALYSIS
   SEEMS GENEROUS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAX SHOWS A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CENTERED AROUND
   700 MB...AND MLCAPE AROUND 350 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN
   HALF OF WW 15 HAVE STRUGGLED IN THIS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS SURGED
   AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH SUGGESTS THE WIND THREAT MAY BE LESSENED
   ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
   STILL BE POSSIBLE. A SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   EXISTS ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS WHERE A CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS SW OF HASTINGS NEB MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD
   REMAINS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39269838 39229903 39649935 40559928 41729744 43179549
               43249489 43239439 42249434 41509471 40779584 39609681
               39369770 39269838