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Mesoscale Discussion 184 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF SWRN THRU CNTRL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021022Z - 021215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL...MOSTLY MARGINAL...SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH
13-16Z. LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSITY...WEST OF CHANUTE...APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO COINCIDING
WEAKENING INHIBITION...ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WITH A NARROW
PLUME OF INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD
PERSIST AS FORCING PROGRESSES THROUGH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 13-16Z. OCCASIONAL...MOSTLY
MARGINAL...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT LOCALIZED
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PERHAPS AIDED BY DOWNWARD MIXING OF 40-50 KT LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2015
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38489506 39129389 39259177 38259171 36999356 37119531
38489506
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