MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT MON APR 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK/NWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 070021Z - 070245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STORM WITH HAIL EXISTS
   EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX.

   DISCUSSION...A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AT THE SFC AND
   ALOFT NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX WHERE HEATING
   OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY AND BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT.

   A LEADING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA
   AND MAY BE ENHANCING MIDLEVEL LIFT AND MOISTENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS
   SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WITH VEERING SUPERCELL WIND
   PROFILES BUT THE AIR MASS IS CAPPED IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL AS A BACKING OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WARMER AIR MAY YIELD A QUICK STORM...BUT
   CAPPING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY.
   AS SUCH...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER A SMALL
   AREA BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34650012 35119948 35189899 34999847 34409849 34029892
               33719998 33790042 34030051 34300043 34650012