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Mesoscale Discussion 222 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL SC AND A SMALL PORTION OF S-CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 080024Z - 080230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS N-CNTRL SC AND FAR S-CNTRL NC. WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING HAS PROMOTED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER N-CNTRL SC. SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE PROVIDING A
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG PER RECENT RAP
MESOANALYSIS IS PRIMARILY BEING LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED OVER THIS REGION.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS AND A MERGING
OF CELLS WITH TIME MAY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS. AS SFC TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO LESSEN AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35038169 35018110 34938043 34738028 34368036 34018058
34248211 34698204 35038169
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