MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN KY.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082150Z - 082345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS SEVERAL MULTI-CELL
   CLUSTERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL KY AS OF 2130Z. THESE CELLS ARE
   LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PASSING PERTURBATION IN WLY FLOW
   ALOFT...WHICH IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
   CONVERGENCE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS. CURRENT
   MESOANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE /SUPPORTED BY A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/...ALONG
   WITH APPROXIMATELY 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...IS PRESENT. CELL
   TRENDS APPEAR TO AGREE WITH THESE VALUES...AS THE MODE HAS GENERALLY
   BEEN DOMINATED BY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS WITH TRANSIENT ROTATION ALOFT.
   THEREFORE...THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A
   COMBINATION OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS RESULTING FROM
   STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN POCKETS OF BETTER INSOLATION AND
   POTENTIAL COLD POOL ORGANIZATION.

   ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37928307 37208401 36988522 36948614 37278657 37558662
               38178569 38788479 38748408 38488302 37928307