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Mesoscale Discussion 289 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA / SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131259Z - 131500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING AND THE WIND PROFILE STRENGTHENS. SOME
TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT
CIRCULATIONS.
DISCUSSION...12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW 70S TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN LA WITH ESELY FLOW. TIME/HEIGHT TRENDS FROM
KLIX AND KLCH SHOW A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE IN THE
LOWEST 4 KM AGL AHEAD OF A MCV OVER THE TX UPPER COASTAL PLAIN. AS
THIS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FEATURE APPROACHES THE REGION...FURTHER
ENLARGING OF THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH IS PROBABLE. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED STORMS...A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW MESOCYCLONE ROTATION. IF STORMS
CAN INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO MAY RESULT.
..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/13/2015
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30749350 30789160 30648911 30128881 29148907 28989067
29549193 30749350
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