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Mesoscale Discussion 296 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX AND ADJACENT WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142037Z - 142115Z
CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHIC
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT INVOF THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY OF E TX/WRN LA. LIMITED NATURE OF THE RISK SUGGESTS
THAT A WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
E TX ATTM...ALONG REMNANTS OF THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONT N OF AN ONGOING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SERN TX AND THE WRN GULF EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.
CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE A
FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER HAVE ALLOWED A CORRIDOR OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPE TO DEVELOP --
NEAR AND W OF THE KPOE /FORT POLK LA/ VICINITY. THIS LOCAL
DESTABILIZATION IS FUELING A RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION --
INCLUDING A SMALL/WEAKLY ROTATING CELL NOW OVER ERN SHELBY CO TX
THAT IS SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER ATTM.
WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...LIMITED RISK FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUST APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
WHICH EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW /E
OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/ THAT VEERS TO SWLY THROUGH 1-1.5
KM...SPIN-UP OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF
THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31129387 31669455 32159488 32419380 32209237 31639236
31099336 31129387
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