MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161749Z - 161945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.  THIS SHOULD INCLUDE ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...INCLUDING THE HIGH
   RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STORM
   INITIATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE AS EARLY AS THE 19-21Z.  THIS
   APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING...FROM WEST TO
   EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
   PLAINS...ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF AN
   INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.

   COINCIDING WITH WITH GRADUAL NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD RETURN OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING
   MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT
   APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO
   SUPERCELLS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT...BENEATH THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.

   LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK INTO EARLY
   EVENING.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN INCREASINGLY BETTER
   DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW
   STALLING/MODIFYING COLD FRONT /WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS/ COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOMEWHAT ENHANCED TORNADIC
   POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35210241 35800215 36240142 36300060 35540050 33970043
               33110135 33060218 34040225 35210241