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Mesoscale Discussion 335 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171555Z - 171800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS
INTO MIDDAY. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR
TERM...BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY WITHIN A PRE-DRYLINE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500+ J/KG...NORTH OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE VICINITY OF A STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. FORCING ON THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW MAY BE SUPPORTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR OCCASIONAL
SEVERE HAIL INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS.
EAST OF THE DRY LINE...AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE RED
RIVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 25-35
KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD
PROPAGATION TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...BUT THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY AT LEAST INITIALLY STRONGER
INHIBITION STILL PRESENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH MAY NOT WEAKEN APPRECIABLY UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31300096 33020050 33590011 33789943 33079799 31479893
31149992 31300096
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