MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191051Z - 191245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY GRADUALLY
   INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INITIALLY ACROSS THE
   WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN AL...BUT EVENTUALLY ALSO OTHER
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA LATER
   THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OFF THE
   COAST OF SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS/AL...WITH MORE RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT INTO INLAND AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL
   PANHANDLE SINCE 0945Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND EVEN OTHER SHOWERS/FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED
   BY INCREASING LOWER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS/FORCING ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

   EVEN WITH SEMI-COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...FACTORS SUCH AS
   INCREASING FORCING/MIXING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING APPEAR TO
   BE LEADING TO DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION EARLY THIS
   MORNING WITHIN A NORTHWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
   UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS HAVE
   INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT...WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP
   GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH 150-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH. AS STORMS
   CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS...AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT A
   MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
   UPSCALE-GROWING LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. WHILE THE SEVERE RISK MAY
   REMAIN ISOLATED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A
   CONTINUALLY INCREASING INTENSITY/COVERAGE TREND COULD PROMPT A WATCH
   ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32208411 30668453 30198549 30298671 30148763 30758787
               33218625 32208411