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Mesoscale Discussion 377 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST
MO...AND WESTERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191743Z - 191945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OK BY 20Z AND TRACK EAST TOWARD WESTERN AR. LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY
20Z.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER LOW IN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THREAT. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED
FROM EASTERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SCATTERED AGITATED CU HAVE DEVELOPED AS DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND AN ERODING CAP. INSTABILITY
SHOULD INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES /7 TO 8 DEG C PER KM/ PER 12Z RAOBS FROM OUN AND FWD
INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY STORMS AS WELL. WHILE GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...A TORNADO OR TWO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY ON WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE DUE TO THE AMBIENT VORTICITY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. THE MCD
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 20Z.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33419325 34379300 35439299 36239323 37049385 37749516
37829651 37399781 36839843 36329865 35399869 34509821
34149784 33559641 33219461 33159366 33419325
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