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Mesoscale Discussion 380 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 79...
VALID 192011Z - 192215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 79 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY STILL INCREASE THROUGH 23-00Z ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE
NC...COLUMBIA SC...AND CHARLESTON SC AREAS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN A LINE AHEAD OF AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...AND BELT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH 23-00Z. NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
IS AROUND 30 KT...INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF IT IS ALLOWING FOR A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. THE WARMING INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAIRLY
MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.
AND...WITH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTING SOME STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW FROM 30 TO 40 KT...ATOP A BACKED AMBIENT
SURFACE COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR MESOVORTICES
WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AND/OR TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 04/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34758200 35698164 36098060 35037974 33807925 33327930
32298051 32078116 33148134 34758200
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