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Mesoscale Discussion 409 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NY...NERN PA...NRN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...
VALID 210234Z - 210400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS AMALGAMATED INTO MULTIPLE
EWD-SPREADING...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE INTO MORE STABLE AIR N OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM
SECTOR...WITH FURTHER STATIC STABILITY OFFERED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SVR RISK...AND NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED. HOWEVER...ENX/BGM VWPS SAMPLE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR CAPABLE
OF MAINTAINING MODEST CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH RELATED MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ENHANCING SFC WIND GUSTS ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 92 IN THE SHORT-TERM. THIS OVERALL RISK SHOULD WANE
WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..COHEN.. 04/21/2015
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40937568 42207564 43327567 43517507 42887462 41647439
40757466 40937568
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