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Mesoscale Discussion 415 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...S TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221554Z - 221745Z
CORRECTED FOR TORNADO THREAT
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER SRN INTO S-CNTRL TX BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE OR
TORNADO. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXISTS ACROSS DEEP S TX
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F. ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER
EXISTS...SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR DUE TO BREAKS LEADING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION.
A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN NWD TRANSPORT OF THIS MOIST AIR
MASS INTO CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SUBTLE WAVES IN THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700
MB AS WELL AS LONG HODOGRAPHS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL
SUPPORT HAIL. WATER LOADING MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL WITH ANY OF THE LARGER CELLS OR CLUSTERS. LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF
THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS SUGGEST A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
..JEWELL/HART.. 04/22/2015
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27279734 27429942 28349983 29459972 29949911 30159716
30119588 29939529 29539506 29039499 28559583 28219649
27919687 27459722 27279734
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