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Mesoscale Discussion 428 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232035Z - 232230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRESUMING DEVELOPMENT...WW WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE FLOWING
ANTICYCLONICALLY NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE SRN
STREAM SWRN U.S/NWRN MEXICO UPPER TROUGH. WHILE A POCKET OF
CLEARING OVER CENTRAL TX HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO OCCUR /BOOSTING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000
J/KG/...CAPPING PREVAILS ATTM PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND AS IMPLIED BY
LACK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THAT SAID...CONTINUED LOCAL HEATING AND SOME INCREASE IN THE
MID-LEVEL ACCAS DEPTH PER VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS
THAT STILL-UNCERTAIN SURFACE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE BECOMING MORE
IMMINENT. GIVEN THE MOIST/LOCALLY DESTABILIZING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
AND BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS REGIONS FOR
FURTHER SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHICH WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/23/2015
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30189917 30519973 31079970 31999833 32209676 31449621
30349695 30159830 30189917
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