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Mesoscale Discussion 437 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241914Z - 242045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937
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