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Mesoscale Discussion 447 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250748Z - 250915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
28329813 28850014 29240055
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