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Mesoscale Discussion 473 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262344Z - 270145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.
AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.
..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
30410102 30910023
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