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Mesoscale Discussion 489 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011831Z - 012100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...WITH A FEW PERHAPS REACHING 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE ABOUT
17Z OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO. WITH THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
DESTABILIZING AMIDST A MEAN DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILE...STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS E ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE ERN CO
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AMDAR DATA INVOF DENVER CONFIRM ONLY 20-25 KT
500-MB WLYS ATOP A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SELYS DEPICTED IN KFTG/KPUX VWP
DATA. WITH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING ON THE MODEST SIDE AS
WELL...UPDRAFT ROTATION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN BOTH INTENSITY/TEMPORAL
EXTENT. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
40S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HALF-INCH TO
ONE-INCH HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/01/2015
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39310533 40520550 40840562 41110544 41270507 41280454
41000400 40150362 38680356 38080399 38040469 38230510
38550530 38580536 39310533
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