MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO VALLEY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...

   VALID 062330Z - 070100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THROUGH 02Z...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
   REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WRN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 135.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
   DATA INDICATE TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM
   CRANE AND UPTON INTO SCURRY COUNTIES IN WESTERN TX.  THE LOCAL
   ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...YIELDING MLCAPE OF 1500-2500
   J/KG.  MOREOVER...AREA WSR-88D VAD DATA INDICATE A VERTICALLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WHICH
   SHOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION IN MATURE STORMS.  

   CURRENTLY...THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF TORNADO WATCH
   135 AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
   IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA PRIOR TO 02Z.  GIVEN THIS
   UNCERTAINTY...WRN PARTS OF THE WATCH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED...THOUGH
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT EASTERN PORTIONS CAN PROBABLY BE
   CLEARED PRIOR TO THE 02Z EXPIRATION.  LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

   ..MEAD.. 05/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30950235 31610218 32240120 32810075 32920049 32800035
               32200029 31859952 31759910 31059893 30369995 30320077
               30300153 30950235