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Mesoscale Discussion 536 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX AND SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 072051Z - 072245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO
SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX THIS EVENING. A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...MCS FROM WRN OK SWWD THROUGH NWRN TX IS MOVING
GENERALLY EWD AT 15 TO 20 KT. OTHER DISCRETE CELLS ARE FORMING IN
NCNTRL TX AHEAD OF THE LINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE AND MINIMAL CAP REMAINING. VWP DATA SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IS WEAK WITH SMALL HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SHEAR THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE...AND SOME
OF THE DISCRETE CELLS IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME
INCREASE IN THE LLJ WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE 0-1
KM HODOGRAPHS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW
TORNADOES.
..DIAL/HART.. 05/07/2015
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34289747 34309673 34169576 33079621 32459764 32959883
33589810 34289747
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