|
Mesoscale Discussion 585 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101600Z - 101830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM NERN OK WILL SPREAD
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE
ACCOMPANYING AN MCS OVER FAR ERN OK/KS IS DEVELOPING AND WILL SPREAD
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT AS RICH AS IT IS TO THE
S...WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING THROUGH A RELATIVELY THIN
CIRRUS SHIELD RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS ALLOWING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. AND...GIVEN AN MCS-ESTABLISHED
MODEST COLD POOL CHARACTERIZED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 1-3
MB...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. SUCH RISK WOULD BE ENCOURAGED BY AROUND
30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE SGF VWP...WITH 30-40 KT OF
FLOW AROUND 1 KM AGL FACILITATING CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY WILL BE IN PLACE...WHICH COULD
MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM RISK.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 36839436 37869460 38739405 39029230 38359115 37319097
36919137 36709263 36839436
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|