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Mesoscale Discussion 587 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...FAR SRN IA...NRN MO...FAR
NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101652Z - 101915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THIS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE NRN EXTENT OF A LARGER MCS
CROSSING PARTS OF THE OZARKS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MO VALLEY AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS IS
STUNTING DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THOUGH INSOLATION IS
SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL MO AND S-CNTRL IA
WHERE CIRRUS IS THINNER. AND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE RISK FOR STORM
INTENSIFICATION AS CONVECTION SPREADS NWD/NNEWD. TWX AND EAX VWPS
SAMPLE MERIDIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND
GUSTS. SOME TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION UPSTREAM EXHIBITING SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CHARACTERISTICS...AND WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...THE OVERALL COVERAGE
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR RISK MAY BE LIMITED.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41079435 40279285 39669219 39139320 39819524 40829668
41079435
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