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Mesoscale Discussion 602 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR TO NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 161...
VALID 110257Z - 110430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK FOR A TORNADO WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS FROM W-CNTRL AR TO NERN TX.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF WW 161 AND LOCALLY EXTENDED WW 155
MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW NEAR 04Z...BUT MORE LIKELY A
REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 05Z.
DISCUSSION...GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED WITHIN
SEMI-DISCRETE WAA-DRIVEN STORMS FROM NERN TX INTO W-CNTRL AR. WITH
THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING AMIDST A 40-KT SLY LLJ AND MAINTAINING
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE...ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL TIGHTENING INTO
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...FORWARD MOVEMENT OF A SUPERCELL CLUSTER CENTERED IN VAN
ZANDT/HENDERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN AT ABOUT 20-30 KT WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN THIS CLUSTER BEING ALONG THE FWD/SHV CWA BORDER AT 04Z.
UPSHEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL...BUT THE BULK OF DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO VALID PORTIONS OF WW 161 BETWEEN 04-05Z.
..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 35499326 35389286 35069258 34299249 32799350 31859457
31729519 31619550 31559595 31689639 31939655 32309597
32699565 33349526 33919456 34269430 34619418 35089397
35469367 35499326
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