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Mesoscale Discussion 607 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111730Z - 111930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S F.
LIGHTNING AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY FOCUSED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SWRN MS INTO S
CNTRL LA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND OR HAIL. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
WATCH.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29839309 30319178 31119098 31879056 32118988 31968906
31448867 30888834 30318833 29698846 28968906 28959071
29379189 29839309
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