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Mesoscale Discussion 634 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131924Z - 132200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
TX MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE NNW/SSE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDS DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM STRONGER CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SRN TX.
THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A BROAD/DEEP MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN TX. GPS DATA INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND
1.6-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP LOADING
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...THE FWS VWP SAMPLES DEEP
MERIDIONAL FLOW AROUND 35 KT EXTENDING ABOVE 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...A
WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD CANOPY HAS STUNTED PBL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND POOR LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP...NEARLY MOIST-NEUTRAL PROFILE EXIST WITHIN
THE MOIST PLUME. AS SUCH...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPWARD ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE LIMITED WITH CONVECTION...THUS MITIGATING THE OVERALL SVR TSTM
RISK.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/13/2015
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 29869602 31199643 32259651 32439594 31979515 31309486
30599494 29909554 29869602
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