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Mesoscale Discussion 639 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141936Z - 142130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TX...SERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS NWWD ACROSS WRN TX AND INTO SERN NM WHERE HEATING
CONTINUES BENEATH PATCHY CIRRUS. CU FIELDS WERE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN NM IN AN UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN
MX...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN TX LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO DEPICTS THIS FEATURE WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT AROUND 21Z AND
ENHANCED LIFT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SWRN TX AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN EWD EXPANSION WITH THROUGH EVENING. WHILE
FLOW ALOFT IS NOT STRONG...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE STORM PROPAGATION...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY...SOME
SPLITTING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 05/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 31610070 31050155 30840281 31290369 31660421 32160438
33040419 33620303 34270217 34440126 34100032 33259983
32520006 32080039 31610070
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