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Mesoscale Discussion 641 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142044Z - 142315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MODEST AIR
MASS RECOVERY/HEATING HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT FROM PARTS OF ERN KS
TO SW/W-CNTRL MO -- I.E. TO THE W OF A N/S-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE TO W OF WEST PLAINS. THIS IS
WHERE POCKETS OF INSOLATION THROUGH TRANSLUCENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE YIELDED MINOR DESTABILIZATION AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS -- ESPECIALLY W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE EWD
WITH TIME OWING TO AREAS OF HEATING TO ITS E.
ISOLATED...GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE LOW-MLCINH
ENVIRONMENT W OF THE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF FAR ERN KS /INVOF ALONG
A SFC TROUGH/ AND IN THE PARTIALLY-DIURNALLY HEATED AIR W OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD DEEPEN FURTHER WITH
ADDITIONAL SFC-LAYER HEATING...ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NE OF
THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD. ALSO...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW TRAILING SW OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND GIVEN A RESIDUAL LLJ...THE EAX...LSX...AND SGF VWPS ARE
SAMPLING NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR POTENTIALLY
ROTATING STORMS. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND OR PERHAPS A SHORT-DURATION
TORNADO. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.
..COHEN/GUYER.. 05/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 39239153 38519131 37899167 37499236 37409350 38159451
38989440 39619300 39239153
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