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Mesoscale Discussion 659 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...EXTREME SERN
CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161701Z - 161830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
DISCUSSION...A POWERFUL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS
NM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET BEGINNING TO EMERGE
INTO THE W TX/TX PANHANDLE REGION. EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH CLEARING
SKIES NOTED FROM NERN NM INTO FAR SW KS. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION WILL IMPEDE GREATER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
REGION FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
INITIAL HAZARD...BUT SOME GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER IN
THE DAY AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. WITH CU BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS NERN NM INTO SERN CO AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.
..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37160039 35490103 35130210 34080298 34460434 34920477
35730468 36430448 37390270 37940205 38430141 38390086
37160039
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