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Mesoscale Discussion 698 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NORTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191930Z - 192030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH/CNTRL TX. THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ONE OR TWO
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADOES ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS CNTRL/NORTH TX. OCCASIONAL
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FEATURING WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. VWP DATA FROM GRK/FWS SHOW VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...AND NEAR 100 M^2/S^2 OF 0-1 KM SRH OBSERVED. GIVEN A
RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SELY WINDS...AND
THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPARENT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...UPDRAFT STRENGTH
AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LCL/S...MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 05/19/2015
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 33239561 32289518 31099655 30919734 30869844 31299976
32039976 32999959 33259773 33239561
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