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Mesoscale Discussion 754 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...
VALID 250419Z - 250515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.
..GUYER.. 05/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
37920083
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