|
Mesoscale Discussion 784 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID OH VALLEY VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261724Z - 261930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM
SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PORTIONS OF INDIANA INTO KY. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY MOIST /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE...HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUD BREAKS IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW
INDICATED DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED /AROUND 50 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLYS
ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. THUS -- EXPECT SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL TO EVOLVE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. RISK MAY
WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...
LOT...
LAT...LON 42438590 42408478 41998423 41258369 39998349 38468340
37958609 38168648 41328734 41938673 42438590
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|