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Mesoscale Discussion 790 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN TX...FAR SWRN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 222...
VALID 262242Z - 270015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 222 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
ADDITIONALLY...AREAL EXTENSION TO THE SE OF THE CURRENT WW MAY BE
NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE WW EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN RECENTLY REPORTED IN PALO PINTO CO. THIS REPORT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN HP SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CLUSTER TO
THE WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND AREA VWP DATA
SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 KTS/ IS
AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
MODEST 850-700 FLOW IS LIKELY RESULTING IN STRONG/DOMINANT COLD POOL
GENERATION IN SEVERAL CELLS. THEREFORE...IN THE NEAR TERM...A LARGE
HAIL THREAT /OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL
BUOYANCY/ MAY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SEVERAL CELLS QUICKLY
BECOMING ELEVATED OVER STABLE DOWNDRAFT AIR. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CELL OVER STEPHENS/PALO PINTO CO...WHICH MAY BE
INGESTING ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THE PRIOR
DAY/S CONVECTION. AS IT MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE IN A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A SEWD AREAL EXTENSION MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. MOREOVER...THERE MAY BE SOME SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THE
THREAT OVER MORE OF THE MCD AREA AS 850 FLOW STRENGTHENS LATER THIS
EVENING.
..PICCA.. 05/26/2015
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32159975 32839985 34239956 34499896 34089773 33569747
32239756 31969878 32159975
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